JPMorgan puts Bitcoin in its long term outlook
JPMorgan put Bitcoin in its long term outlook for the first time: 10% a year over 10 to 15 years, with 55% volatility. Here is my take and the tricky part.
This is a video I made about JPMorgan putting Bitcoin in its long term outlook. Here it is written out.
Watch it on YouTube.
In short
JP Morgan Asset Management 2027 Long-term capital market assumptions project a 10% annual return for Bitcoin over 10 to 15 years.
Besides the fact that they have three different scenarios, the scenario of the 10% per year is considered a normal scenario, more neutral, not even too bullish or too bearish.
Bitcoin for the first time made to this report, which is huge, is insane.
JPMorgan is taking it serious
JP Morgan is taking it f*cking serious. Let me show you this. JP Morgan Asset Management 2027 Long-term capital market assumptions project a 10% annual return for Bitcoin over 10 to 15 years.
What this actually means
What the f*ck this actually means? Let me explain you. What they are saying in theory is that over the next 10 years, on average and overall, they believe Bitcoin will give you a return of 10% a year, meaning that if you put $1,000 today, you would have around 2000 and something in the end of 10 years.
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The tricky part
Yet there is a few things to mention. First one, not only Bitcoin is winning when it comes to the possible return over these 10 years, if compared with any other asset that they have on this report, but also they have the biggest percentage on volatility over the year. So what they say is that potentially Bitcoin might have 55% up, but also in the same year can have 55% down. And that is the tricky part.
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Three scenarios
Besides the fact that they have three different scenarios, the scenario of the 10% per year is considered a normal scenario, more neutral, not even too bullish or too bearish. They do have one that is the bear case, which is a 10% loss over the years. And the bull case is at 17% up.
If we have a 10 year view, looking at Bitcoin on a bear scenario, you would have been losing 10% a year. So your $1,000 would go down to around $350. Yet if we look at the bull case, we are talking about more than $4,000 over the 10 years. And these I'm just saying putting money and leaving there, not doing nothing.
A note on the numbers, checked against coverage of the report: the 10% a year and the 55% volatility are right, and US large cap stocks are at 7.5% with about 18% volatility for comparison. One outlet has the bull case at 16.6% and the bear case at 11.2% a year, close to the 17% and 10% in the video. Bitcoin is in the report, but not in JPMorgan's core model portfolios, because of its volatility and unstable correlations.
Why I'm so excited
Regardless of what you think, what is my take and why I'm so excited is that Bitcoin for the first time made to this report, which is huge, is insane. Considering all the boring stuff that we have in traditional markets and who is going to be looking at this, it's pretty much huge institution considering where to allocate their money for the long term. So bullish.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments on YouTube.
Would you put money in and just leave it there for 10 years?
Keep reading
References
My video, JPMorgan just put Bitcoin in their long term outlook for the first time, 21 October 2026: watch on YouTube.
CryptoSlate, JPMorgan models Bitcoin reaching $385,000 in 10 year bull case (J.P. Morgan 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released 19 October 2026; base 10% a year, bull 16.6%, bear minus 11.2%, volatility 55% against 18% for US equities, not in the core model portfolios): read the article.
Investing Live, JPMorgan sees Bitcoin returning 10% a year, why volatility makes that hard to collect (about 10% a year over 10 to 15 years against 7.5% for US large cap stocks, first time JPMorgan puts a range on Bitcoin returns): read the article.
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